Galaxy Digital's Head of Research, Alex Thorn, suggests that the anticipated distribution of more than 140,000 BTC from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange may not have severe impact on the market as initially anticipated. 

Thorn's analysis indicates that the selling pressure is likely to come from individual creditors, who, according to him, are predominantly long-term Bitcoin holders and are inclined to hold onto their BTC rather than selling immediately. The research further suggests that the fear of a significant market impact is exaggerated and that the actual sell pressure may be less than what the market expects.

Alex Thorn's evaluation reveals that the predominant group of Mt. Gox creditors consist of individuals with extensive knowledge of technology who have been long-term holders of Bitcoin. Despite being tempted with multiple compelling offers from claims funds, these creditors have turned them down, signifying their primary goal of retrieving their Bitcoin holdings as opposed to seeking a payout in US dollars.

Analyst's View on Individual Creditors' Diamond-Handed Approach

Alex outlines the main reasons why individual creditors are inclined to hold onto their Bitcoin rather than sell it immediately:

1. Long-Term Bitcoiners: Creditors are significantly skewed towards long-term Bitcoiners, who are tech-savvy early adopters of the cryptocurrency, making them less likely to sell. This is supported by their history of resisting compelling and aggressive offers from claims funds, indicating their strong desire to retrieve their coins rather than opting for a USD-denominated payout.
   
   
2. Resistance to Compelling Offers: Individual creditors have resisted years of compelling and aggressive offers from claims funds, suggesting their preference for retrieving their coins rather than opting for a USD-denominated payout.
   
   
3. Significant Capital Gains Impact: The potential capital gains impact of selling would be substantial due to the significant price appreciation of Bitcoin. Despite only a 15% in-kind recovery, claims holders are up 140x since the bankruptcy on their recovered coins in USD, making it less attractive for them to sell.

In the meantime, his conversations with claims funds suggest that the majority of partners in these funds are individuals with a high net worth. They see this as a chance to obtain Bitcoin at a lower price, rather than being arbitrageurs seeking immediate profits.

Although there are possible factors that could reduce the impact, Thorn admitted that the sale of just 10% of the 65,000 coins assigned to each creditor could bring 6,500 BTC into the market through sales, potentially causing a considerable effect on prices in the near future.

Potential Impact on Bitcoin Cash (BCH)

The performance of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is predicted to be less favorable compared to Bitcoin. This is because the acquired BCH is a result of Mt. Gox utilized its BTC keys to obtain the fork, which took place several years after the company's bankruptcy.

Thorn predicts that due to BCH’s low liquidity and the fact that no creditor originally purchased it, creditors are likely to sell a significant portion of it, potentially exerting downward pressure on its price.